"Making accurate macro predictions consistently is nigh on impossible!" - Quilter Cheviot

As we approach our next Masterclass, speaker David Henry, Investment Manager, Quilter Cheviot, explains the need for journalists to understand the often unpredictable and counter-intuitive behaviour of the stock market and reveals why most investment managers prefer to focus on the operations of the businesses that they invest in, rather than making macro economic predictions.
Can you give a quick overview of what your Masterclass session will cover?
I plan to speak about the relationship between stock markets, and the overall economy – with particular reference how the stock market can behave in unpredictable and counter-intuitive ways.
What are the challenges surrounding your topic you would like journalists to help their readers understand? How will you be discussing this at the Masterclass?
It can de difficult to understand that you might be right about whether a certain event, or economic development will occur – but wrong on the market reaction. If, for instance, we enter a recession is that necessarily a bad thing for stocks?
Any general tips for money writers covering your sector?
Do please pick up the phone to us if there is something that you don’t understand, or want a second opinion on. Most Investment Managers find speaking about investing to be the most fun part of your job, and are happy to share their experience with journalists.
What would you like to change about how journalists cover your area of expertise?
Most financial journalism focusses on macro-economic events, when most professional investors would admit that their ability to make macro predictions is pretty limited – especially given that making accurate macro predictions consistently is nigh on impossible! Most Investment Managers prefer to focus on the operations of the businesses that they invest in, rather than trade based on what may or may not happen in the world.
Tell us about the big stories in your sector in the past few months. Could these be rolling stories?
Recent bank failures – SVB, Credit Suisse et al.
Whether inflation is behind us, or will prove more difficult to eradicate from the system?
Finally, why is it important for journalists to have access to initiatives such as Headlinemoney Masterclasses?
The Investment Managers who will be speaking all have deep, “real life” experience of managing other people’s money and an event like this allows us to build relationships with journalists, and provide a source of information and context to them in future.
David Henry, Investment Manager, Quilter Cheviot, will be speaking at the upcoming Headlinemoney Masterclass on 20 April 2023, along with other industry experts giving succinct overviews of their sectors for financial journalists. Find out more and book a place.